Key Findings:

1.  Understory or overstory Composite Burn Index (CBI) ratings for 10 fires were not substantially affected by slope aspect, and elevation, but for two of the fires, results related to timing, or burn season, were significant.

2.  Within the next 50 years, simulation results indicate that boreal forest vegetation will likely shift from primarily spruce-dominated to deciduous-dominated.

3.  Despite the shift to less flammable species, simulation results predict an increase in fire frequency and number of acres burned annually.

4.  ALFRESCO model simulations and changes in the projected cumulative area burned suggest a general rise in fire activity through the end of this century, with the most rapid change in fire activity occurring in the next 20-30 years.

READ MORE of this summary….

Check out previous Joint Fire Science Program – Fire Science Briefs.

Related Information:

Vegetation and Fire Regime Projections for Alaska:

• Reports from Boreal ALFRESCO
• Summary on Interior Alaska National Parks (from Alaska Park Science Journal)

Projected Vegetation and Fire Regime Response to Future Climate Change in Alaska (by Scott Rupp)

Climate Change in Alaska – An Overview (by Scott Rupp)