Everything you wanted to know about fire behavior analysis in Alaska

In one handy paper that came out in 2021, Alaska fire analysts Robert “Zeke” Ziel and Chris Moore have compiled how-to’s, resources, fuel model-to-vegetation type crosswalks, and pro tips and secrets. The reference takes you all the way from introduction to the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating system to how to conduct an analysis of fire behavior in WFDSS (Wildfire Decision Support System used by fire agencies). Included are such perplexing topics as how to estimate live and dead fuel moisture, what are the available short-term and near-term fire models, what do do about winds, which National fuel models require “tweaking” in Alaska, and sources of vegetation map products and satellite imagery. Fire behavior analysts definitely want to review this before the fire season and make sure it’s handy in their kit if they plan to work in Alaska, and researchers will also find this an extremely useful state-of-the-art comprehensive review of how fire behavior analysis currently works in practice.

Moore, Chris; Ziel, Robert. 2021. Fire Analysis in Alaska: A Quick Reference. Unpublished report. Alaska Wildland Fire Coordinating Group. 47 p.

From the authors: “Alaska is faced with a unique fire management problem that has been handled in an interagency way for more than 30 years. The evolution of fire management has led to a different approach in interagency cooperation; weather data management; fire behavior and fire danger implementation; GIS management; and overall fire suppression strategies. This guide is intended to provide standardized inputs for initial analysis; these are not hard and fast rules to be strictly followed throughout an incident.”

Monitoring winds during a prescribed fire.

Research uncovers new twists on fire behavior

Incident fire behavior analysts predicted the 2011 Las Conchas fire would calm down at night, but instead they witnessed a night-time blow-up between 10 p.m. and 3 a.m. where 35-ft high “rolling barrels of fire” advanced rapidly downhill, quadrupling the fire’s size.

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Article in July-Aug 2017 Popular Science by Kyle Dickman, sheds light on extreme fire behavior.

Rod Linn at the fire Los Alamos National Laboratory has been studying wildfires for 22 years, using computational models including weather and topography to explain unexpected behavior.  In a recent Popular Science article he sheds light on some very interesting scenarios that caught the analysts off guard, including how an inversion developing in the evening spilled out of the Valles Grande basin like an overflowing bathtub and spawned the 26 ft/sec downslope night winds that blew up the Las Conchas fire.  The article is very readable and sheds light on several other species of extreme fire behavior that will be of interest to anyone on the fireline.  Pick up the July/August Popular Science or read it for free online here:  https://www.popsci.com/las-conchas-wildfire-pillar-of-fire

P.S. Rod also published a series of articles for firefighters from the Los Alamos Lab and they are online.  Here’s the link to the first one:  Computer modeling helps us learn to live with wildfire.

 

Do bark beetle outbreaks really affect burning?

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It has long been assumed that bark beetle outbreaks on the Kenai lead to increased fire danger, even though beetle disturbance has been shown to have mixed effects on crown fire potential, fuel profiles and burn severity in the Rocky Mountains.  Winslow Hansen, doctoral candidate at the University of Wisconsin, recently published an analysis of beetle outbreaks and fire on the Kenai Peninsula between 2001-2014 (Hansen et al. 2016).  He looked at effects in pure white spruce stands–where duration of beetle attacks is longer and mortality greater–and in mixed white and black spruce stands common on the northern peninsula, where attacks are less severe.  His analysis indicates mixed effects:  severely damaged white spruce stands did not demonstrate increased fire occurrence (instead, % canopy cover appeared to drive likelihood of burning) while the mixed white/black spruce stands did show a positive correlation with beetle outbreaks and fire.  Winslow explores the reasons for this in his relatively short article:  worth reading.  You may remember Winslow from his previous work on beetles/fire effects and property values on the Kenai (recorded MS Thesis defense) and climate effects on fire regime (recorded 2015 presentation).

Citation:  Hansen, W.D, F.S. Chapin III, H.T. Naughton, T.S. Rupp, and D. Verbyla. 2016. Forest-landscape structure mediates effects of a spruce bark beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreak on subsequent likelihood of burning in Alaskan boreal forest.  Forest Ecology and Management 369: 38–46.

Fuel Treatments Aid 2015 Firefighting Efforts in Alaska

A new report by USFWS Kenai Refuge fire staff (Nate Perrine) examines

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areas where the 2015 Card Street fire intersected completed fuels treatments. He utilized IFTDSS (Interagency Fuels Treatment Decision Support System) modeling to analyze the treatment effect on fire behavior, and also documented post fire effects within the treated areas. This well-illustrated discussion includes recommendations for future treatments and analyses–a must-read for fire fuels specialists in Alaska! Click below to download a pdf.

The Effects and Use of Fuel Treatments during the Card Street Fire

Webinar Dec 20th- What is Live Fuel Moisture? A New Look at the Combustion of Live Plants

Fire in PIMA LEPA_JBarnes_250x195

Image from Jennifer Barnes, National Park Service

Date: Thursday, December 20, 2012
Time: 10:00 – 11:30 AM (AK Time)

Link to recording <HERE>

Presented by:  Matt Jolly, PhD
Research Ecologist, USFS
Fire, Fuel and Smoke Science Program
Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory

Live fuel moisture is measured frequently throughout the country as an indicator of potential fire behavior but little is known about the primary factors that drive their seasonal variations. Dr. Matt Jolly will delve into the interactive factors that control live fuel moisture and will discuss some of the potential implications of these factors on seasonal variations in the fire potential of living plants. Ultimately, he will show how the interactions between the water content of the foliage and seasonal changes in the leaf’s dry weight combine to influence calculated live fuel moisture and its flammability.

Read more about Dr. Jolly’s work with living plants and fire and the Missoula Fire Sciences Lab.

Related Resources:
Foliar moisture content input in the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction System for areas outside of Canada
Martin E. Alexander, 2010

Assessing the effect of foliar moisture on the spread rate of crown fires
Martin E. Alexander and Miguel G. Cruz, 2012

Join The Webinarr:

Click HERE to join this webinar (http://osu-pilot-conc.adobeconnect.com/dec202012/).

No pre-registration required.  This link will be active at 9:45 am AK Time on Dec 20th. Select “Enter as a Guest” and provide your name where prompted to participate.

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More Catastrophic Fires Ahead for Western U.S.

News from Science Daily:

More Catastrophic Fires Ahead for Western U.S..

Read the Full Journal Article:

J. R. Marlon, P. J. Bartlein, D. G. Gavin, C. J. Long, R. S. Anderson, C. E. Briles, K. J. Brown, D. Colombaroli, D. J. Hallett, M. J. Power, E. A. Scharf, M. K. Walsh. PNAS Plus: Long-term perspective on wildfires in the western USA. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2012; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1112839109

Direct from the Source:

Inside NAU (Northern Arizona University)

Aside

Listen to how Rod Norum faced the challenge of a major fire burning toward the Alaska Pipeline–including a “monster” tactical 26-mile-long backfire.

Direct link to this video:  http://youtu.be/2oLTxhLQd-E?t=3s

Visit the Wildland Fire Lessons Learned Center for more videos from the experts.

Learning from the experts: Watch Rod Norum discuss his experience with fuels and fire behavior in Alaska

2012 Brings a New Look for the Joint Fire Science Program

JFSP Resprouting as FireScience.gov!

The Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP) launched into 2012 with a completely new web look and feel. Their new site is packed with new features and channels to help you stay connected.

  • For daily information, be sure to follow Firescience.gov, the Regional Consortia (including Alaska!), and others in the increasingly robust wildland fire community on Twitter. It’s painless to sign up and you don’t have to actualy “Tweet” if you don’t want to!
  • If you’re on Facebook be sure to Like their Facebook page to receive updates and information of interest to the wildland fire community.
  • Most importantly – Join the JSFP Mailing List for newsletters and announcements. Check out the latest January 2012 release or browse previous newsletters.  If you like what you see, use the links at the bottom to forward to anyone  you think would benefit from broad, timely, relevant fire science updates.

On Fire: The Official Blog of Firescience.gov

The new blog – On Fire – brings you facts, insight, and commentary on the latest wildland fire science findings, management tools and recommndations. In the coming weeks they will be adding slideshows, videos and guest bloggers. Subscribe and share!

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Nenana Ridge Experimental Burn Project – JFSP Final Report

The Nenana Ridge Experimental Burn Project (06-2-1-396) Final Report is now available from the Joint Fire Science Program.

In summary…

This project was funded by the Joint Fire Science Program with contributions from local, state and federal agencies. This project was designed to quantify the effects of fuels reduction treatments on fire behavior and post-fire vegetation dynamics in Alaska black spruce. The study began in 2006 with installation of four 1-acre treatment blocks. Two blocks were thinned to 8 x 8 foot spacing and limbed, one was shearbladed, and one was shearbladed and windrowed. These four blocks were replicated in the adjacent forest unit, with the intent to burn each Unit (A and B) separately. Unit A was successfully ignited on June 17, 2009.  READ MORE

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