Where fire management and carbon studies connect . . .

Screen capture of the WFEIS calculator (http://wfeis.mtri.org)

On the surface Alaska fire management and boreal ecosystem carbon studies have little in common.  But a deeper look reveals the connections between them.  Carbon scientists in the last decade have become increasingly interested in fire effects on the legacy carbon locked up in permafrost and the deep, slow-to-decompose organic layer of boreal forest floor (Kasischke et al. 2013, Genet et al. 2013).  Projections indicating more extensive, frequent and/or severe fires in northern latitudes with a rapidly warming climate, longer fire seasons, and more lightning (Romps, et al. 2014) lend a certain urgency to attempts to quantify the potential impacts of fire-released carbon on greenhouse warming.  Fire management agencies are less interested in long-term impacts of fire-released gasses but they are more and more driven to assess impacts of smoke on communities.  Work at the boundary between the two sets of interests has started to yield some interesting results.  For example, Michigan Tech Research Institute has joined their consumption field data from NASA studies to the USFS Consume Model and FCCS fuels maps and LANDFIRE fire perimeters in a web-based tool that provides users a simple interface for computing wildland fire emissions (1-km spatial resolution). The Wildland Fire Emissions Information System (WFEIS) can calculate tons of CO2 or other gases from large fires across the US and Canada from 1984-2010.  Although this tool is  for post-facto emissions analysis it is a good example of how large spatial data sets and complex equations can be united in a simple graphical interface allowing one to–say–query the forest fire emissions from the 231,000 acres burned in Alaska in 2010 (10.9 million tons CO2, 95,000 tons PM 2.5).  The hope is that weather modeling and research linkages with the common fire danger and risk rating system used in northern latitudes (CFFDRS) will soon bring this kind of application into the real-time and forecast prediction realm.

Does climate warming mean more lightning in Alaska?

Capture-trendgraph-lightning-2012JDisMgmt

Fig. 1. Yearly and monthly number of lightning flashes in Alaska from 1986-2010 (Farukh and Hayasaka, 2012)

A recent article in Science magazine (Romps, et al. 2014) postulated a 12% increase in lightning strikes over the continental US for each degree C of warming.  If this model holds true for Alaska, we should have already seen an increase in lightning strikes of roughly 20% in interior Alaska over the last 25 years since summer temperature has warmed by about 2.5 F–up to 3.7 F north of the Brooks Range (data from UAF Geophysical Institute).  So, has anyone looked at the trends in Alaska’s Automatic Lightning Detection Data to see what has been observed?  AFS has been collecting this data (publicly available at http://fire.ak.blm.gov) since 1986. It turns out the answer is yes!  Drs.Farukh and Hayasaka (2012) published an article on how large lightning storms characterized some of our largest recent fire seasons including this figure.  I’d like to challenge other  investigators to look at the regional significance of this phenomenon in the state, which could be an important fire regime driver in boreal forest/tundra, with the data which is now complete (ALDS went offline in 2013, replaced by a time-of-arrival system)!

Climate Change and Fire May Impact Northern Alaska Caribou Herds

Boundary Fire near the Canadian border 2005 (Photo: Tony Chapman, BLM Alaska Fire Service)

Will climate-driven changes in fire regime affect the Porcupine Caribou Herd? Caribou actively seek out and rely on high-energy lichen-rich habitats in the winter, and these lichen stands–also known as “caribou moss”– are uniquely sensitive to fire, requiring 60-100 years to recover after burning. Alaska climate modelers and biologists teamed up to study predicted annual acreage burned in the ranges of two northern herds: the Central Arctic Herd and the Porcupine Caribou Herd (of Arctic National Wildlife Refuge fame). Using newly developed models of wildfire response to climate changes, Gustine et al. (2014) modeled burn acreage in the next few decades under two possible climate trajectories: let’s call them “warm” or “hot”. Under the “warm” scenario they found little change through 2090 in the total old-growth habitats available to caribou of either herd. However, the “hot” climate scenario indicated fires grew larger, increasing average area of winter habitat that burned per decade. In brief, the Central Arctic Herd lost 11% of their winter habitat and the Porcupine Herd lost 21% through 2090 under the “hot” scenario. In addition, 30% of the Porcupine Herd’s current spruce forest habitat changed to a younger forest type or tundra. While biologists continue to debate how much habitat is required to sustain herds at present levels, habitat loss is rarely beneficial and availability of old-growth lichen stands is a big driver of caribou use patterns in most Alaska herds. If we humans have the power to rein in the pace of climate change to the “warm” scenario by slowing our greenhouse gas emissions, the caribou would probably appreciate it. This short illustrated paper is open access—read the whole research article at:

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0100588

Citation: Gustine, D.D., Brinkman, T., Lindgren, M., Schmidt, J.I., Rupp, T.S., and Adams, L.G., 2014, Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic: PLOS One, v. 9, no. 7 100588, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0100588

Upcoming webinar: Effect of Tundra Fires on Post-fire Vegetation

Teresa Hollingsworth, USFS and Amy Breen, UAF-SNAPTundra_Fire

 

Apr 28, 2014  2:00 pm – 3:00 pm  AK time. Register.

https://akfireconsortium.uaf.edu >> Events

Amy and Teresa will summarize the history of tundra fires in Alaska and share preliminary results of their research to characterize post-fire plant communities, quantify fuel accumulation, and model tundra fire regimes and vegetation dynamics.

Find the recorded webinar <HERE>.

 

Outcomes Assessment: Have we learned anything from JFSP-sponsored fire research in Alaska?

Outcome Assessment: Four Alaska JFSP Projects

The Joint Fire Science Program is doing a nation-wide survey this spring (2014) to ask managers whether sponsored research in their respective regions has improved management decisions or is useful to fire management practices.  We started thinking about this for Alaska and prepared a 2-page review of a sample of four projects dating back to 2002 to see whether they have had any impact on management in Alaska, and what their outcomes appear to be today.  Principal investigators included Scott Rupp (UAF), Phil Higuera (University of Idaho), Dan Mann (UAF), and Teresa Hollingsworth (USFS-Fairbanks).  Read our review and see if you think these projects were indeed worthwhile!

Do Bark Beetles Affect Fire Occurrence/Property Value on the Kenai? Watch the Video.

Hansen Thesis DefenseIf you weren’t able to hear this talk in person, watch the video posted on Alaska Fire Science Consortium website: Linked Disturbance Interactions in South-Central Alaska:  Implications for Ecosystems and People.
For his MS Thesis, Winslow explored the social and ecological implications of changing boreal forest natural disturbance regimes. He analyzed how the occurrence of spruce bark beetle outbreak has altered the probability of subsequent wildfire activity between 2001 and 2009 on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska as well as the economic impact of fire and insect disturbances to private property values.    (By permission– Thanks Winslow!)

New 5-yr Arctic Research Plan calls for more research on fire in Alaska’s tundra ecosystems

Fire in Alaska’s tundra ecosystems is getting more attention as a potentially important factor in climate change.  A 5-yr US Arctic Research Program Plan just released by the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee specifically calls for investigating the frequency and severity of wildland fires in the Arctic. It mentions recent research findings from the 2007 Anaktuvuk River fire as well as the climate modeling work of SNAP and socio-economic impacts of climate change on Alaskan arctic communities.  The IARPC reports to the President’s National Science and Technology Council Council who coordinates policy across agencies and set goals for Federal science and technology investments so their endorsement is potentially an important boost for researchers competing for funding.  You can review the plan yourself at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/2013_arctic_research_plan.pdf

RJ-ARF-2008

Examining fire effects in tundra 1 year after the 2007 Anaktuvuk River Fire on Alaska’s North Slope.

PNW Ecotone: New podcast series highlights research in AK, OR and WA

The USFS Pacific Northwest Research Station has recently launched the new “PNW Ecotone” podcast series.  These podcasts will cover the latest science findings, tools, and research topics from the 11 PNW laboratories and centers located in Alaska, Oregon and Washington.

Podcast episodes are available for download or streaming, along with photos, related articles, and transcripts at:  http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/podcasts

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Tundra burning in Alaska: Rare events or harbinger of climate change? Join the Webinar!

The 2007 Uluksian Fire (photo courtesy of P. Higuera).

Dr. Philip Higuera (assistant professor at the College of Natural Resources, University of Idaho) will be joining us for a webinar on May 24, 2012 (1:00-2:00 pm AKDT) entitled “Tundra burning in Alaska: Rare event of harbinger of climate change?”.  Philip’s current research is focused on how climate, vegetation, and human activities interact with fire occurrence and fire regimes (from across years to across millenia).  He is also the Director of the Paleoecology and Fire Ecology Lab  where students and researchers work on charcoal and pollen analysis in lake-sediment records,  dendrochronology, and spatially-explicit modeling and analyses for areas in the US Rocky Mountains, Alaska, and abroad in Tasmania, Australia.

Link to recording <HERE>

Webinar at a Glance:

Dr. Philip Higuera will be presenting results from past and ongoing research focused on understanding the causes and consequences of tundra burning in the past, present, and future. The talk will integrate several lines of work, including reconstructing tundra fire history in the recent and distant past (2000-14,000 yr), quantifying relationships among modern climate, vegetation, and tundra burning, and anticipating future tundra burning given future climate scenarios.

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Nenana Ridge Experimental Burn Project – JFSP Final Report

The Nenana Ridge Experimental Burn Project (06-2-1-396) Final Report is now available from the Joint Fire Science Program.

In summary…

This project was funded by the Joint Fire Science Program with contributions from local, state and federal agencies. This project was designed to quantify the effects of fuels reduction treatments on fire behavior and post-fire vegetation dynamics in Alaska black spruce. The study began in 2006 with installation of four 1-acre treatment blocks. Two blocks were thinned to 8 x 8 foot spacing and limbed, one was shearbladed, and one was shearbladed and windrowed. These four blocks were replicated in the adjacent forest unit, with the intent to burn each Unit (A and B) separately. Unit A was successfully ignited on June 17, 2009.  READ MORE

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